By 
By Bahle Gama
Southern Africa’s agriculture sector is being urged to enhance export strategies as global trade tensions rise, driven by the U.S. reintroducing tariffs on key trading partners, signalling a shift toward protectionism.
As these trade frictions escalate, the global economic landscape is set to undergo significant shifts, raising questions about the future of international trade and economic diplomacy.
According to Agbiz Economist Wandile Sihlobo, Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool to advance America’s mercantilist objectives is not unexpected.
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“A similar approach was observed in his first term in 2018, primarily targeting China. However, the latest move, which initially included close allies such as Canada and Mexico, signals an expansion of protectionist policies beyond strategic rivalry with China, intensifying global trade tensions,” said Sihlobo.
He stated that with ongoing trade disputes, various global regions are reconsidering their trade policies, increasingly leaning toward protectionist measures.
The European Union (EU) is a notable example, where farmers particularly in France and other major economies, are advocating for tighter restrictions on agricultural imports.
While the EU has traditionally resisted imposing tariffs, preferring non-tariff barriers to shield domestic industries, this stance may become more pronounced.
According to the Economist, South Africa’s citrus industry provides a case in point, as it currently has a pending dispute with the EU at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) over trade restrictions.
“If economic nationalism continues to rise, it could pose a substantial risk to South Africa’s agricultural sector, which has relied heavily on exports for growth.
ver the past three decades, the country’s agricultural sector has expanded largely due to its ability to access international markets, with exports accounting for roughly 50 per cent of total agricultural output by value,” Sihlobo said.
Sihlobo further for 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports are projected to surpass the US$14 billion mark, following a record US$13.2 billion in 2023, according to Trade Map data. Strong commodity prices and robust fruit exports have driven this growth.
The EU, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia remain South Africa’s primary export markets, with the Americas accounting for just 6 per cent of total agricultural exports in 2023.
However, this relatively low export share to the Americas according to Sihlobo does not mean the region is insignificant.
The concentration of exports mainly nuts, citrus, wine, grapes, and fruit juices means that trade restrictions or negative sentiment from trade conflicts could disrupt specific industries.
Therefore, maintaining stable trade relations with the Americas is, crucial for sectoral stability.
“South Africa must proactively reinforce its global trade partnerships beyond Europe to navigate the shifting trade environment.
This requires regular engagement between government agencies, business representatives, and industry leaders to refine export strategies.
South Africa should position itself as an open and pragmatic trade player, prioritizing economic interests over ideological alignments in both bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations,” said the economist.
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He further stated that expanding market access for South African agricultural products will be challenging in an era of growing protectionism, requiring a nuanced approach to economic diplomacy.
Therefore, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition as well as the Department of International Relations and Cooperation must play a crucial role in strengthening bilateral trade capabilities and advancing economic diplomacy.
“In the face of increasing trade fragmentation, South Africa’s ability to adapt and secure diversified market access will be critical for sustaining economic growth and ensuring resilience in the agricultural sector.
Proactive policy interventions and strategic global partnerships will define the country’s ability to thrive in this evolving economic landscape,” concluded Sihlobo.
